How a ‘No-Deal’ Brexit Could Open a Path to Irish Unity

The corner of Londonderry, Northern Ireland, where the “Bloody Sunday” killings of demonstrators were carried out. The Good Friday Agreement of 1998 has largely ended sectarian violence.

Andrew Testa for The New York Times

By Benjamin Mueller LONDONDERRY, Northern Ireland — Gary Donnelly, a city councilor in Londonderry, has fought for years to end British rule in Northern Ireland. After the 1998 peace agreement many of his allies put aside the struggle to expel the British and reunify with the Irish Republic, but not Mr. Donnelly.
Now, in the unremitting gloom that has been Northern Ireland’s lot in recent years, he has sighted a beacon of hope in Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union, or Brexit. As the possibility grows of Britain’s crashing out with no deal, so, too, does the likelihood of the reimposition of a hard border with the Irish Republic that many people see as a dire threat to peace and stability. But Mr. Donnelly has a different take. While he shares a sense of alarm about a hard border, he also thinks talk of its return has brought much-needed clarity to the Irish question. “Brexit has highlighted the absurdity of partition,” Mr. Donnelly said. “Others had always been brushing it under the carpet.” Advertisement Mr. Donnelly’s views may be more extreme than most, and the chances of a referendum on reunification remain distant, for now. But the increasing possibility that Britain will leave the European Union on March 29 without an agreement has rallied both moderates and extremists in the united-Ireland camp behind renewed talk of a single Irish state. “The sense of a slow momentum toward Irish reunification has become a fast momentum now,” said Paul Gosling, a Londonderry-based English economist who recently published a book outlining a 10-year plan to reunify Ireland. You have 4 free articles remaining. Subscribe to The Times And lurking in the background of the debate is the possibility that the imposition of a hard border between north and south, with physical checkpoints, could reignite the violence that largely ended in 1998 — fears that were underscored by a recent car bombing in Londonderry and several hoaxes. Given the choice between that and reunification, people across the island of Ireland have shown a preference for unity, though neither government has expressed the same enthusiasm. Not helping matters, the regional assembly for Northern Ireland, based in Stormont, has been suspended for two years because of political feuds and scandals. And Northern Ireland’s fragile balance of power between Irish nationalists and pro-United Kingdom unionists has been upset, if not altogether destroyed, by the agreement of the conservative Democratic Unionist Party to prop up Prime Minister Theresa May’s minority government in London. Editors’ Picks An 1840s Road Trip, Captured on Lustrous Silver He Committed Murder. Then He Graduated From an Elite Law School. Would You Hire Him as Your Attorney? Gumbo, the Classic New Orleans Dish, Is Dead. Long Live Gumbo. Advertisement That has turned the Democratic Unionists into Northern Ireland’s dominant force in Westminster, despite the party’s bucking most residents’ wishes by championing Brexit. (The pro-Irish unity party, Sinn Fein, refuses to send elected leaders to Parliament at all.) The combination of a hard border and political deadlock could weaken the peace agreement and possibly lead to a renewal of the violence that took more than 3,500 lives during the Troubles, analysts say. That, in turn, might heighten pressures for reunification. Forensic officers inspecting the remains of a van after a bombing attack outside a courthouse in Londonderry last month. The attack revived deep fears of political violence. CreditCharles Mcquillan/Getty Images Image Forensic officers inspecting the remains of a van after a bombing attack outside a courthouse in Londonderry last month. The attack revived deep fears of political violence. CreditCharles Mcquillan/Getty Images Deirdre Heenan, a professor of social policy at Ulster University in Londonderry, said that the effect of a suspended regional assembly and out-of-touch leadership was a “political vacuum” in Northern Ireland. “And history will tell you that political vacuums give rise to extreme voices,” she said. The dangers were on display in January, when a car bomb exploded in front of a courthouse in Londonderry. The police suspected a splinter group called the New Irish Republican Army. No one was injured, but dozens of people were forced out of their homes after the explosion and a series of car hijackings that followed.